The Ukrainian connection in the protests in Belarus
- possible scenarios of Ukrainian intervention in the Republic of Belarus;
- experience of provocations on the Maidan in Belarusian conditions;
Hello, I'm Vasily Prozorov.
I have often been asked a question about the events in Belarus. Especially in the context of Ukrainian interference in internal affairs.
What can I say about it? Let me just say that I have some documentary materials about Ukraine's interference in the internal affairs of Belarus. But, unfortunately, I have no right to show these materials. This is about the safety of the people who gave them to me.
we will be talking about modeling the situation, which is based on the
analysis of open information available to me and my knowledge of the
internal cuisine of the Ukrainian special services.
I'll start with the main thing-the commanding staff. I am very concerned about the recent appointments of heads of special services in Ukraine. The fact is that all recent appointees are supporters of the power methods of intelligence work. For example, the new head of the foreign intelligence Service of Ukraine Valery Kondratyuk. Let me remind you that during his leadership the 5th Directorate was recreated in to the Department of counterintelligence, which deals specifically with diversions, political assassinations and other acts of terror. Moreover, the new head of the Main Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov is a professional saboteur who served in the 10th special forces unit of military intelligence before his appointment.
The same thing is the appointment of the commander of special operations forces of the armed forces of Ukraine-Grigory Galagan. He began his service as an officer in the special forces of military intelligence. Then he moved to the special operations Center " A " of the security Service of Ukraine. Considered a well-trained sniper. By the way, Galagan is the only from the 3rd Department of "Alpha" of the SBU who did not stay in the Crimea in 2014, but went to the territory of Ukraine.
I had to communicate with Galagan during my duty trips to the zone of so-called anti-terrorist operations. At that time Galagan was the head of special operations counter-sabotage forces. It was “a hodgepodge” of all law enforcement agencies that fought with the militia intelligence groups. I immediately noticed his hatred of everything connected with Russia. And he did not consider representatives of the DPR-LPR to be people at all. At the same time, it is impossible not to mention his high level of professionalism in the preparation and conduct of special operations, personal bravery and compliance with the requirements of secrecy.
What am I leading my story to?
The fact that the people came to leadership of the Ukrainian special services used to betting on simple and, as it seems to them, effective methods of solving problems. It seems that they either do not know how, or do not want to conduct long-term agent development and operational games. Their specialty is sabotage, provocation, and terrorist attacks.
And now we return to the question of Belarus. For the Ukrainian Special Services, it is a tasty object of influence to drive a wedge between Belarus and Russia, destroy the Union of the two States, sow the seeds of nationalism on Belarusian soil and turn the country to the West. And the fact that they will plunge the people of an entire country into chaos, Ukrainian puppeteers do not care.
And since I have to
resort to analytical modeling, as mentioned above, I will allow you to
assume possible and quite likely scenarios for the activities of the
Ukrainian Special Services in Belarus.
They may be assigned the task of organizing provocations against two target audiences. On the one hand, these are law enforcement agencies that guard law and order. On the other - the protest movement, the emerging opposition and its supporters.
In relation to the security forces, Ukrainian agents will be tasked with organizing provocations against law enforcement officers, allegedly on behalf of supporters of the Belarusian opposition. Here we can expect attacks during mass events, threats to employees and their families, and sometimes-murders and kidnappings of children, false reports of mining and other emergencies. Using women and children as "soft power" to demoralize the security forces. However, priority is given to those methods that can provoke law enforcement officials to respond inappropriately harshly, and then use this as an argument in calls to counter the dictatorial regime. I would like to emphasize once again the subversive nature of these methods: Ukrainian specialists must influence representatives of Belarusian law enforcement agencies ostensibly on behalf of the opposition.
Now, as for the second object of influence – the opposition. Ukrainian specialists transform into a criminal shape-shifters. Using camouflage, that Belarusian law enforcers use the Ukrainian saboteurs organize kidnappings, and sometimes murder of the leaders of the protest movement. For disguise and disinformation, they spread rumors that it is the Russian special services, disguised in the form of Belarusian security forces, who are rampaging and brutalizing the participants of the peaceful march. And this technology allows you to kill two birds with one stone. For Belarusian opposition and Western media, this will be an argument confirming the presence of Russian special services in the country that support Lukashenko. This, in turn, will seriously increase the degree of confrontation in the country. And for Russian liberals – this will be another reason to declare the" bloody regime " of Putin and Moscow's interference in the internal Affairs of Belarus.
Do you think I'm overreacting?
No at all. It is worth remembering that in Ukraine during the Maidan evets in 2013-2014, all these technologies were perfectly worked out. And you should not think that such actions will be carried out only by personnel members of military intelligence or special operations forces. No, it will be enough to attract fighters of right-wing nationalist groups. And the Ukrainian special services have enough skills to motivate them to provocations and sabotage. Someone can be told about the centuries-old struggle of Europeans with the "blood Russia", someone can be promised material benefits. And someone, especially from among the Belarusian nationalists, who are enough in the regiment "Azov", - to promise high posts and positions in the new Belarus.
By the way, some of the provisions of my model were confirmed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who even announced specific figures and places of training.
What should we do to prevent this model from being implemented?
I hope that the special services and law enforcement agencies of Belarus conducted such an analysis in advance and worked out counteraction measures. I can only advise-close the borders with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States for men aged 20-45 years. From personal experience, I can say that during the Maidan, the security service of Ukraine took only half-hearted measures – the entry of men of this age was put under control, but the ban was not introduced. Who knows, if there were no infamous "Georgian snipers" and other foreign "coordinators", the events in Kiev could have gone a completely different way.
Valery Kondratyuk is the former Deputy Head of the Administration of Ukraine (2016-2019), the Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (2015-2016), the Head of the SBU Counter-Intelligence Department (2014-2015), Lieutenant General.
Kirill Budanov – the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
Grigory Galagan - Major General, from 1995 to 2002 served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From 2002 to 2019 was a member of the security Service of Ukraine, the first Deputy head of the Center for special operations in the fight against terrorism, protection of participants in criminal proceedings and law enforcement officers of the security Service of Ukraine. Currently, he is the commander of the MTR of the AFU.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is a special purpose law enforcement agency intended to ensure the country's state security. Subordinates to the President of Ukraine.
The foreign intelligence service of Ukraine (SVR) is a state authority of Ukraine that carries out intelligence in the political, economic, military-technical, scientific-technical, information and environmental areas.
The Special Operations Forces are one of the five branches of the Ukrainian armed forces that can be involved in information and psychological operations, the fight against terrorism and piracy, and to perform other tasks.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is Ukraine's military intelligence service.
Unit "Azov" is a linear special purpose unit within the military unit 3057 of the Eastern operational – territorial Association of the National guard of Ukraine. Formed from volunteers in May 2014 in Mariupol as a battalion of the special purpose police Patrol service of the Ministry of internal Affairs of Ukraine.